Andean Instability Threatens to Detract from South American Summit

  
Brazilian President Fernando Henrique Cardoso has convened his fellow South American presidents for a two-day summit in Brasília starting on August 31. Despite the presence of the leaders of other countries in the region, including Guyana and Suriname, this is basically a meeting of two trade blocs - Mercosur and the Andean Community. It comes at a time of great economic uncertainty for Mercosur and political instability in the Andean region.

Politically, relations between the Mercosur countries are going very well, to the point of having successfully defended the democratic regime in Paraguay against attempted coups by General Lino Oviedo and the assassination of Vice President Luis María Argaña. Economically, prospects are not as rosy. Trade impasses persist between Argentina and Brazil, with Uruguay squeezed between them. Most severe are disputes concerning the automobile and auto parts sector. The disagreements are rooted in serious discrepancies in the exchange regimes and fiscal policies of the two countries. In addition, Brazil desperately needs to improve its balance of trade and attract more direct foreign investment to overcome its lack of progress on other more pressing structural/institutional matters.

The Andean Community is a mixed bag of weak governments and authoritarian rulers who have very little prestige in the world community. Brazil is concerned about the instability on its borders, but is not at all convinced by the US aid package that could escalate the war in Colombia. Observers also fear renewed conflict between Peru and Ecuador as both countries' embattled leaders search for some distraction to their serious domestic problems.

For Brazil, the South American summit is as much an economic conference aimed at seeking alternatives to an FTAA process dominated by the United States as it is a political conference. In pursuing this agenda, Brazil will have to contend with strong nationalistic rhetoric from Venezuela and Peru, as well as the De la Rua government of Argentina (which is trying to distance itself from the overwhelmingly pro-US attitudes of its predecessor). The diversity of opinion was evident at a preparatory seminar in Brasília the week before the summit, when former Argentine President Raúl Alfonsín described the formation of an extended South American bloc as "inevitable." According to Sebastián Allegrett, a Venezuelan who is secretary of the Andean Community's Executive Commission, it is the FTAA that is inevitable. He and most of the others present cited this as the main reason to form a counterweight to the pressures of the United States.

More concern over US hegemony will likely emerge from two days of talks between the Brazilian president and his Venezuelan counterpart. But, populist rhetoric will not provide the solutions to the questions of social and political stability in the region. The Mercosur countries understand this, but can they and their Andean neighbors resist the chance to point a finger at the North?

Another key issue at the summit will be whether or not the final declaration should include a "democracy clause" pledging collective defense of democratic regimes. Such a clause would have no real mechanism of enforcement and would ignore broader questions of governance extending to stability-both political and social. The Mercosur countries may be reluctant to include such a clause due to their nervousness over potential tides of economic and political refugees from future conflicts in the Andean region.

At best, the summit will feature a tepid attempt to defend democratic values and a greater south-south emphasis on trade. The most concrete area of discussion promises to be an ambitious regionwide plan of public works. Talk of stronger regional infrastructure will reinforce the idea of the need for greater economic unity to confront the hegemony of the United States. The project is an example of Brazil's traditionally independent and regional-based foreign policy, and an attempt to call attention to the need to treat Latin America with respect and understanding. Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush tapped into this idea during his recent Latin America policy speech at Florida International University, when he stated that "one size doesn't fit all" in foreign policy.

The Brasília summit will not attract the street protests that have characterized other hemispheric meetings. However, a few groups are planning meetings timed to coincide with the summit. Not willing to miss a chance to press its goals of social dialogue and workers' rights, the International Labor Organization (ILO) is sponsoring a meeting of South American trade union movements in Brasilia on August 30 and 31. The union leaders will take the opportunity to present their own declaration to their presidents. In addition, an Inter-American Labor Union Conference on civil aviation, titled "Open Skies No!" will use the concentration of journalists in Brasília to push its positions against airport privatization and the open skies project for the region, which workers claim is destroying their national airlines. Of most concern is the opening of domestic markets to foreign airlines. Given the prevailing mood at the summit, this call for economic nationalism may find an answering echo.