VENEZUELA: ELECTIONS AND TRAGEDY

  
The outcome of the Venezuelan referendum on a new constitution and name for the country (Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela) turned out to be as lopsided as President Hugo Chávez had predicted. About 71% of votes cast on December 15 favored the new constitution, but only about 50% of eligible voters participated. The low turnout was blamed on heavy rains and the approaching Christmas holiday. Both sides were vocal in making their views heard, taking to the streets and banging on pots to call attention to their cause. Chávez was responsible for some of the most heated rhetoric, attacking the “rancid oligarchy” and urging that leaders of the Catholic Church who opposed the new charter be “exorcised.” Polls showed that only about 3% of voters had actually read the constitution, which is not surprising due to its length (over 100 pages) and legal language. The election was, in fact, a referendum on the president himself, and he won hands down.

The Constituent Assembly wasted no time in dissolving Congress and the Supreme Court. In their stead it appointed a new, 21-member Congress and an attorney general, comptroller and Supreme Tribunal of Justice. The constitution calls for new elections, to be held probably in March or early April. Voters will elect a president, a unicameral legislature, mayors and judges. Chávez is expected to win re-election easily and his Fifth Republic Movement (running as the Patriotic Pole Coalition) to make gains in the legislature and at the local level.

In addition to changing the name of the country and creating a unicameral legislature, the new constitution gives soldiers the right to vote, lengthens the presidential term, allows for re-election, and guarantees the rights of indigenous peoples and women. It also includes promises of major assistance for housing, health care and education.

However, these developments were eclipsed by a major national catastrophe that coincided with the election. Exceptionally heavy and protracted rains fell on Venezuela in the normally dry month of December. The denuded slopes of the El Avila mountain range north of Caracas collapsed, sending enormous mud and rock slides onto the people and buildings below. The residential and commercial areas affected were overbuilt, without zoning, safety or construction supervision and planning. Estimates of the number of casualties range from 15,000 to 25,000, and an additional 150,00 to 250,000 people were left homeless or evacuated the area. Chávez pledged to create 11 settlements in the interior of the country to receive the displaced persons, but it was not clear if the evacuees would relocate.

International aid rushed to address the growing health and sanitation problems caused by the tragedy. Help came from international groups, bilateral organizations and private donations. Venezuelan nationals or descendants of Venezuelans living in the US, as well as private companies and banks, mobilized to send aid to the needy. Such efforts were especially strong in South Florida.

An unexpected result of the national tragedy was the unity it created among Venezuelans. People came together to cope with the crisis, leaving aside for the moment bitter political struggles. By December 27, however, reports began to circulate that Chávez had ignored a report from the civil defense forces warning of the impending disaster.

The issues at stake in the coming elections guarantee that political competition and attacks will remain facts of life in Venezuela in the near future. The economy is the key factor for meeting the aspirations of poor and middle-class Venezuelans. Chávez’s populist pronouncements, his cozying up to Fidel Castro, and his strident attacks on opponents have caused uncertainty in the private sector. Unless local entrepreneurs have confidence in the future, there will be no recovery and no prosperity, in spite of high oil prices.

Venezuela is a major trading partner with Florida, accounting for 6% to 7% of the state’s total merchandise trade and 7.5% to 9.5% of its exports. A troubled Venezuela is bound to have an impact on Florida’s economy, as well.