MEXICANS REPORT IRREGULARITIES AS PRESIDENTIAL VOTE APPROACHES
  

Mexico is preparing for what could be a decisive moment in its political history. The July 2 presidential elections promise to be the most fair and transparent in recent decades, and hold out a real chance for an opposition victory over the governing Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Yet, charges of party patronage and media manipulation persist, raising doubts whether a close PRI victory will be accepted as legitimate.

The National Democratic Institute (NDI), which has been invited to observe the elections, has reported that "in contrast to past presidential elections, electoral reforms have given political actors confidence that the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) is committed and capable of administering democratic elections." IFE authorities claim that they have implemented a system to monitor the electoral process, "using all the resources at hand to close avenues for mistrust and assure legal and accurate voting results….The electoral process has been and will be up to the last minute a collaborative effort that involves millions of eyes, and multiple and meticulous security mechanisms." In addition, the IFE has requested that political parties provide periodic information on campaign expenditures, a step that the NDI calls important progress toward transparency and disclosure in the party finance system.

The presence of nonpartisan observer groups, such as Alianza Cívica, COPARMEX and the Mexican Academy of Human Rights, has boosted public confidence in the electoral process. However, in the months leading up to the elections complaints have arisen that local and state authorities are using public resources to benefit their parties' candidates. The NDI reports that media coverage of candidates and parties is more open, independent and balanced now than it was in the 1988 and 1994 presidential elections, but concludes that "despite these advances, the coverage provided is still inconsistent with fair coverage of an election campaign."

Opinion polls show an extremely close race between the PRI candidate, Francisco Labastida, and Vicente Fox, of the National Action Party (PAN)-Alliance for Change. Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas of the Democratic Revolutionary Party (PRD) is running a distant third, but has rebuffed attempts to form an opposition coalition with Fox. Instead, Cárdenas has publicly disparaged his rival, giving the PRI the advantage of facing a splintered opposition.

According to political analyst Enrique Semo, the elections will not mark the end of the battle among the three candidates; rather, Semo argues, "the vote sets the stage for a fight over the distribution of power. For the three leading contenders, it will mark relative victories and defeats. Absolute domination by any one candidate at all levels of power is an impossible scenario."

Other observers predict that if the PRI wins, the party's entrenched power structure will clamp down to avoid further democratic challenges that could put the party's future at risk. A PRI victory would leave things pretty much the way they are, except that the PAN would consolidate its second-place standing in Congress. If Fox wins, he could be expected to build a pluralist administration and seek accords with the opposition to compensate for his government's institutional weakness.

The final outcome on July 2 will show whether Mexico has followed a democratic process with potential to breathe new life into its political system. The public is demanding elections that are fair, open and competitive. If these conditions are met, the ultimate victor will be Mexican democracy itself.