Chávez Moves Toward Re-Election, but with Less Popular Support

  
Venezuelan leader Hugo Chávez is on the campaign trail seeking re-election to another six-year term. The positions up for grabs in the July 30 "megaelections," which were postponed from their original date of May 28, range from the presidency to members of the National Assembly, governors, regional legislative councils, the capital city government, mayors and delegates to the Andean and Latin American Parliaments.
  

Political Climate
  
Chávez has boasted that he doesn't need to campaign to win. His statements have contributed to the confrontational nature of politics in Venezuela, where both the president and his opponents have engaged in harsh rhetoric and criticism. Opposition candidates have accused Chávez of using the presidential office to influence the campaign. The opposition has also expressed distrust of the impartiality of the National Electoral Council (CNE); Chávez's leading rival, Francisco Arias Cárdenas, appealed to Venezuela's Supreme Court to declare on constitutional grounds that the votes must be counted by hand before the official results can be declared.

Some critics argue that two months are not enough to correct the flaws that caused the May 28 elections to be postponed. José Manuel Zerpa, president of the CNE's Disclosure Commission, has responded that Venezuela's electoral authorities are prepared to guarantee the technical soundness of the elections. Nevertheless, another CNE official, Ignacio Avalas, noted that "there is deep-seated suspicion of fraud in Venezuela, and there is no way to change this collective consciousness."

Another factor contributing to voters' lack of enthusiasm is a type of electoral fatigue. In the past year and a half, Venezuelans have gone the polls six times to vote on such issues as a new constitution, changing the official name of the country (to Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela) and extending the presidential term to six years from five, allowing for consecutive re-election. Some analysts predict that voter weariness could result in an abstention rate as high as 40% on July 30.
  

The Chávez Phenomenon
  
A recent opinion poll by CIRM Eurotop shows Chávez leading Arias Cárdenas by 18 percentage points. Despite this lead, however, Chávez's popularity shows signs of weakening from its high point in 1998. The severe economic recession, 14.6% unemployment rate and rising crime levels have created disillusionment among Venezuelans. This sense is reflected in the comments of Carlos J. Soucre, a columnist for El Universal newspaper, who calls the current government "a political class just as rancid and even more mediocre than the one it replaced."

Political analyst Luis Vicente León predicts election results similar to those in 1998, but he also points to a decline in pubic enthusiasm for the Chávez government. Seventy-seven percent of Venezuelans disapprove of the president's employment policy, and 90% give him low ratings for public safety, both key public opinion indicators.

León describes voters as being divided into two camps: "one that is emotionally connected to a charismatic leader, but is beginning to lose that connection and turn into an undefined support base; and a groundswell of opposition that evaluates the president's performance at a more rational level."

Chávez has enough support among Venezuela's 11 million voters to be almost certain of his re-election. León predicts, however, that "the loss of the president's concentrated base of support will become clear, and a more open system of political discussion in Venezuela will begin to emerge."