Warning Signs from Venezuela

 
One of the challenges facing the new president of the United States will be developing a strategy for dealing with Venezuela's leader, Hugo Chávez. The Washington Post points out that Chávez is important not only because of his standing as a Latin American president, "but because he controls the largest petroleum reserves outside of the Middle East, which supply a good part of the United States' energy imports, and because of his clear intentions to spread a leftist, anti-American ideology throughout the region."

For Latin America, the biggest danger is not Chávez's anti-American slant but rather the effect his misguided leadership has already had on Venezuela democratic system, and its potential implications for neighboring countries. As Miami Herald columnist Andrés Oppenheimer warns, the important thing about Chávez is not so much what he says, but what he does.

An example is the recent visit of Fidel Castro to Venezuela. Chávez welcomed the Cuban leader by proclaiming that "the people of Cuba and Venezuela are one and the same." For his part, Castro praised the political and economic changes that Chávez has implemented in Venezuela. "In far less time, the Bolivarian revolution has been able to achieve 70% of the Cuban revolution's accomplishments," Castro said.

The Spanish newspaper El País put Castro's visit into perspective. Castro and Chávez "share the traits of populism, demagoguery and authoritarianism, but their rise to power was different," the paper wrote. "Castro carried out an armed insurrection and installed a permanent communist dictatorship, while Chávez took office after presidential elections that were recently revalidated. There is no comparison between the two regimes, although Chávez's authoritarian tendencies are cause for concern."

Further cause for worry was provided by Chávez's trip to Iraq and his contacts with guerrilla groups in Colombia and Bolivia. Venezuela has also pledged to provide oil at low cost to Central America and the Caribbean, in an apparent attempt to bolster Chávez's aspirations to be the bridge between continental Latin America and these areas.

The most recent news to alarm analysts came on October 27, when Venezuela's National Assembly approved a measure to introduce presidential "rule by decree." The measure allows Chávez to pass legislation without congressional debate for a period of one year.

According to experts, the decision gives Chávez broad powers that are unprecedented in Venezuela. His rule by decree will extend to such areas as finance, economic and social policy, infrastructure, transportation and services, public safety, the judiciary, science and technology, and state organization and functions.

The opposition sees this as a sign that Chávez is moving closer to dictatorship in his quest to centralize power and avoid all checks and balances. The National Assembly "needs greater independence, not submission," complained opposition Congressman Gerardo Blay.

Developments in Venezuela seem to be confirming the dire predictions of a recent Miami Herald editorial warning that "Chávez's behavior is fast becoming not merely uncomfortable but potentially dangerous. The danger is not so much for the United States and neighboring countries-without considering that Venezuela sells the US 1.4 million barrels of oil a day-but for Venezuela's democracy and its citizens."