Challenges to Democracy in Latin America

 
Political scientists point to three major hurdles to democracy in Latin America this year: political instability, guerrilla violence and slow economic growth. Attempted coups in Ecuador and Paraguay, the violence in Colombia, election fraud in Peru and political uncertainty in Venezuela are just some examples that confirm this assessment.

Argentine political analyst Juan Gabriel Tokatlian notes that in some countries, political instability is manifesting itself in new types of coups d'etat. In Paraguay, for example, "factional coups" bring together disaffected sectors of the military with political interest groups and organized crime. In Ecuador, a "camouflage coup" ousted President Jamil Mahuad and brought Gustavo Noboa to power. Former Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori orchestrated an "electoral coup" that failed when the depths of corruption of his kleptocracy were revealed. Argentina came close to suffering a "market coup" that threatened the convertibility of the Argentine peso, a monetary policy that is one of the pillars of President Fernando de la Rua's government but which has produced a fierce debate with proponents of devaluation.

But according to Uruguayan political scientist Juan Faroppa, Venezuela is one of the most troubling countries in the region. He argues that "Chávez's presence is a danger to the consolidation of democracy and the very security of the continent. The constitutional reforms adopted in Venezuela concentrate power in the hands of the president, limiting the space for participation by minorities represented in parliament."

Colombia also worries many analysts. No end is in sight to the armed conflict there, and violence prevails. Chilean analyst Hugo Fruhling blames the situation on "an impotent and ineffective legal system."

The outlook is brighter in some countries in the region. Mexico and Chile are examples of democratic progress in Latin America. In Mexico, Vicente Fox defeated a party that seemed to be permanently entrenched in power, and Chile's president, Ricardo Lagos, was elected on the platform of a socialist party that 25 years earlier was overthrown by the military. Peru also has new hopes for democracy after the fall of Fujimori.

The balance is still skewed in favor of instability. Polls show that citizens distrust their nations' institutions, dislike politicians and reject politics in general. The future of democracy in Latin America will depend in large part on acceptance of regional integration and the continued democratization of political systems. The question is whether the region has the political will to commit itself to these goals.