The Plan Colombia: A Plan for Regional Instability?

   
Neighboring countries have expressed concern over the implications of the $1.3 billion aid package that US is preparing to send to Colombia. The so-called Plan Colombia is supposed to address that country's armed conflict, drug trafficking and social and economic crises. However, the governments of Peru, Bolivia, Venezuela, Ecuador, Panama and Brazil worry that it will cause the Colombian crisis to spill over their borders.

The View from Washington
  
On her recent trip to South America, US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright argued that support for the Plan Colombia means support for peace, the battle against illicit drugs, economic growth and a democratic system of government. "Plan Colombia is an excellent plan, an integral plan that not only addresses drugs, but also social and economic problems, the peace process and human rights in Colombia," she claimed.

Clearly, a priority for the US government is to combat drug trafficking, which the Clinton administration has defined as a matter of national security. President Clinton plans to visit Colombia on August 30 to show his support for military and economic aid in this area. The president has been quoted as saying that "the situation in Colombia is too precarious to wait."

And in fact, the largest portion of the aid package, $519.2 million, is destined for the military ($328 million alone for new helicopters). Roughly 35% of the total-$458.8 million-will be used for multilateral antinarcotics operations involving other countries in the region besides Colombia. The remainder is earmarked for the police, alternative crop development, displaced persons, human rights, judicial reform, law enforcement and the peace process.

Arlene Tickner, director of the Center for International Studies at the Universidad de los Andes, emphasized Washington's preoccupation with the drugs issue. She went so far as to say that if the drug trafficking problem didn't exist, there would be no Plan Colombia.

Neighbors Worry
  
The countries that border Colombia fear that the US aid package will cause a surge in Colombian refugees into their territory, along with a spread of guerrilla and drug trafficking activity. Adam Isacson of the Center for International Policy in Washington, D.C., acknowledged to the Colombian newspaper El Tiempo that these fears have a basis in reality. "If the offensive in southern Colombia is as successful as hoped, the cultivation of illicit crops could cross over the border," he pointed out. "The seeds could be carried to neighboring countries such as Ecuador, Peru, Brazil or Venezuela, where the state has a weak presence in frontier zones. In the case of Ecuador alone (which borders the Colombian province of Putumayo), there could be a mass exodus of between 30,000 and 40,000 displaced persons."

In recent interviews with the New York Times, US officials have called this phenomenon the "balloon effect." They explain that when they succeed in fighting back the illicit drug industry in one country or region, it soon pops up again elsewhere. Eduardo Toche Medrano of Peru's Centro de Estudios y Promoción del Desarrollo (Desco), points out that when Peru cracked down on illegal drugs within its borders many coca growers and traffickers picked up and moved to Colombia. It's not farfetched to assume that "if these individuals have trouble developing their businesses they'll look south again," he said.

Peruvian President Alberto Fujimori recently declared that Peru should prepare itself for a possible escalation of the Colombian conflict as a result of the aid package. The governments of Ecuador and Panama have also announced that they will reinforce the police presence along their borders to prevent drug producers and guerrillas from seeking refuge in their countries. "Our concern is that removing this cancerous tumor [drug trafficking] will cause it to metastasize in Ecuador," said the Ecuadorian foreign minister, Heinz Moeller.

Brazil's minister of defense, Geraldo Quintão, told the newspaper Folha de São Paulo that Brazilian authorities would mount an operation to prevent the same thing from happening in their country. For his part, the foreign minister of Venezuela, José Vicente Rangel, argued that the heavy military component of the Plan Colombia could have harmful effects for the region. "Venezuela believes that it is counterproductive to seek peace by using military methods," he said.

The Colombian government has defended itself against these charges. Foreign Minister Guillermo Fernández de Soto explained that the plan is designed to promote peace and development, not war, and so should not imply problems for neighboring countries. Ernesto Borda, director of the Institute for Human Rights at Colombia's Universidad Javeriana, noted that "a large part of the answer for dispelling such fears lies in the success of the social component of the plan; that is, the implementation of alternative development projects that are profitable and sustainable. Such projects must be designed with the cooperation of the residents of the border zones to provide real productive alternatives, so that they don't simply take their businesses to other parts of the country or abroad."

What's certain is that the Plan Colombia will not provide immediate or easy solutions to the country's problems. Colombia needs what political scientist Juan Gabriel Tokatlian calls a "Plan D": a plan capable of resolving the war, not just containing it in the short term. This plan should represent a consensus among Colombians and receive the support of the rest of Latin America.